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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025147 |
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| An integrated model for coordinating external and internal water transfers in the Beijing-Tianjin Region |
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LINA·Tuoku, LIU Nan, MEN Baohui, WU Xingtao
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College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】The Beijing-Tianjin region confronts acute water supply challenges, driven by high socioeconomic water demand, limited local water resources, heavy reliance on external transfers, and increased drought risks and climate change. We propose a water resource scheduling model in this paper to alleviate water shortages. 【Method】An objective function minimizing water shortage loss was established based on the ’10 000- yuan output water intake’ concept. Drought risk functions were constructed for four scenarios: abundant water in both supply and receiving regions, drought in both regions, and differential combination of abundance and drought between the supply and receiving regions. An integrated model was developed to analyze drought risk under varying water availability in both regions; water scheduling was optimized based on the importance of water users and water use efficiency to ensure fair, efficient water allocation. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated by comparing its water supply performance with that of the standard operation policy (SOP) model under different scenarios. 【Result】Under the same scenarios, the drought risk-incorporated model significantly reduces water shortage frequency, compared to the SOP model. Implementing early water restriction measures can mitigate deterioration of water shortages and reduce severe losses from critical shortages. 【Conclusion】During drought period, the proposed model reduces water shortage losses. It can help improve water resource management and mitigate severe water shortages in the Beijing-Tianjin region. |
| Key words: water allocation; Hedging model; drought; Beijing-Tianjin region; South-to-North Water Transfer Project |
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