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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026042 |
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| Long-term changes and constraint analysis of irrigation district modernization: A case study of Panzhuang Irrigation District |
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He Rui, Zhang Dening, Zhao Cong, Ji Weiguang, Wang Zhongyuan, Wang Zhanhou, Chen Haorui, Wang Lei, Chang Xiaomin
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1. China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China;
2. Operation and Maintenance Center of Panzhuang Irrigation District, Dezhou 253000, China;
3. National Water-saving Irrigation Engineering Technology Research Center, Beijing 100048, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Background】Irrigation district modernization is essential for improving irrigation water-use efficiency and facilitating sustainable water-resource management. In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in modernization of irrigation districts in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin and identified the key constraints and drivers that have hindered or facilitated modernization.【Method】We used the Panzhuang Irrigation District as a case study and constructed an evaluation index system covering water-resource use efficiency, socioeconomic benefits and irrigation-infrastructure support capacity, based on data collected from 2001 to 2023. A game- theory-based combined weighting method, integrated with the analytic hierarchy process and entropy-weight method, was used to determine the weights of individual indicators. The TOPSIS model was used to dynamically evaluate the modernization level, and an obstacle-degree model was used to diagnose the key factors constraining the modernization.【Result】①The combined weighting results indicated that investment in water-saving renovation projects, per capita income, and water consumption per 10 000 yuan of industry-added value were the three most important factors influencing the modernization level. ②From 2001 to 2023, the modernization level of the irrigation district followed a trajectory of ‘fluctuating growth-rapid growth-plateauing’ with the comprehensive evaluation score increasing from 0.275 3 to 0.665 1; meanwhile, the water-resource carrying capacity improved from Grade II to Grade IV. ③Obstacle-degree analysis revealed that the factors constraining modernization shifted substantially during the study period.【Conclusion】Modernization of the Panzhuang Irrigation District has made substantial progress, with the dominant constraints shifting from low water-use efficiency and poor management in the early stage to unstable investment and increasing water-resource scarcity in the later stage. Future modernization efforts should focus on establishing stable, long-term investment mechanisms and improving coordination of water and land resource usage to support sustainable development in the basin. |
| Key words: Panzhuang Irrigation District game theory combined weighting TOPSIS model obstacle factor water resource carrying capacity |
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