| This article has been：Browse 1831Times Download 2662Times |
scan it! |
|
|
| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2017.0261 |
|
| Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk Based on Improved TOPSIS Method in Ningxia |
|
WANG Chunyi, LIANG Chuan, ZHAO Lu , CUI Ningbo , GUAN Jing, HU Xiaotao, GONG Daozhi
|
|
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering & College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China; Provincial Key Laboratory of Water-Saving Agriculture in Hill Areas of Southern China, Chengdu 610066, China; Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Institute of Water-saving Agriculture in Arid Areas of China, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling 712100, China; State Engineering Laboratory for Efficient Water Use and Disaster Loss Reduction of Crops, Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
|
| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】 Evaluate the drought risk of Ningxia scientifically and effectively. 【Method】 Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, using meteorological and social economic data of Yinchuan, Shizuishan, Wuzhong, Guyuan and Zhongwei, index system of agricultural drought risk assesment in Ningxia was established by selecting 32 evaluation indexes from 4 aspects including hazard of formation factors （H）, exposure of affected bodies（E）, vulnerability of formation environments （V） and drought-resistant ability （RE）. 【Result】The results showed that through principal component analysis （PCA） and entropy weight method, improved TOPSIS method and vertical projection method, the vertical projection distance （Pi） of principal components of 5 cities （Yinchuan, Shizuishan, Wuzhong, Guyuan City and Zhongwei） to the ideal solution were 0.045, 0.035, 0.037, 0.026, 0.033, respectively. There was a difference of the agricultural drought risk between the north and the south in Ningxia, ranking from high to low was Guyuan>Zhongwei>Shizuishan>Wuzhong>Yinchuan. The data and distribution of drought risk in Ningxia calculated by the method of radar chart were consistent with the actual drought disaster data and spatial distribution from 1949 to 2013, which further validated the reliability and practicability of the method. 【Conclusion】 In order to effectively reduce the agricultural drought risk potential in the future, Ningxia should establish a “Structure with water, Determination of area by water, Determine production by water” of the concept of agricultural irrigation water management, in accordance with the idea of “Northern water-saving, Central water diversion, Southern exploring resources”, and accelerate the construction of drought monitoring network and drought service system. |
| Key words: agricultural drought; risk assessment; the theory of natural disaster risk; vertical projection method; model |
|
|
