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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025151 |
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| Modelling carrying capacity of water resources in Zhejiang Province |
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ZHAO Xiaoyong, ZHANG Chao, GUO Huifang, LIU Yuyu, PANG Guibin
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1. Zhejiang Tongji Vocational College of Science and Technology, Hangzhou 311231, China;
2. School of Water Conservacy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan 250022, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Zhejiang is an economically developed province in the Yangtze River Delta but faces prominent imbalances between rapid social-economic development and limited water resources, which restricts its high-quality development. Evaluating its water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) and formulating targeted enhancement strategies are crucial for optimizing water resource allocation and ensuring sustainable development in the province. This paper evaluates the dynamic WRCC in Zhejiang Province, and proposes targeted enhancement strategies. 【Method】An improved projection pursuit absolute information deviation (PPAID) model was developed to evaluate the dynamic WRCC in the province. A grey prediction model was used to forecast the changes in WRCC in the near future in the province.【Result】①From 2010 to 2023, the WRCC in Zhejiang Province remained at Level III–the basic carrying capacity; predicted WRCC from 2024 to 2030 in the province will remain at Level III. ②Contribution rate analysis of the four dimensions-water resources, society, economy and ecological environment - indicated that in 2023, the contribution rates of economic and ecological environment indicators to WRCC in the province met the requirements of the Level III standard. In contrast, the contribution rates of water resources and social indicators did not reach the required Level III standard.【Conclusion】The improved PPAID model can effectively extract abnormal structural information of WRCC evaluation data in Zhejiang Province, especially for data with high deviation from normal distribution. The evaluation results are objective and reliable, and our findings provide guidelines for formulating targeted WRCC enhancement strategies in Zhejiang Province. |
| Key words: water resources carrying capacity; projection pursuit; information divergence; evaluation; predict |
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