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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025355 |
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| Parameter sensitivity analysis and application for runoff generation and routing simulation in the Shaying River Basin |
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LI Jingwei, DING Yiran, GUO Ziqian, LIU Mingxiao, DUAN Yatao, WANG Xueliu
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1. Henan Zhongyu International Port Group Corporation Limited, Zhengzhou 450016, China;
2. Henan Industrial Design and Research Institute Group Corporation Limited, Zhengzhou 450003, China;
3. Henan Zhonghao Information Technology Corporation Limited, Zhengzhou 450000, China;
4. North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Rainfall-runoff simulation plays a crucial role in watershed water resources management, flood control, and drought mitigation. Taking the Shaying River Basin as an example, this paper proposes a method to identify and evaluate the key parameters that most influence simulation accuracy.【Method】The study is based on the SWAT model. Basin geographic information and meteorological data measured from five weather stations in the basin were used to construct and calibrate the model. The modeling included spatial discretization of the basin, construction of a multi-source database, sensitivity analysis and calibration of model parameters, and validation of the reliability and stability of the simulation results.【Result】①Based on its river network and other characteristics, the basin was divided into 25 sub-basins with more than 300 hydrological response units. A total of 20 parameters were identified, which had significant impacts on runoff generation and routing. ②Using the SUFI-2 algorithm, the coefficient of determination (R2) of the model calibration based on data from 2009 to 2015 was 0.92 and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency was 0.91, while R2 and NSE for model validation against data measured from 2016 to 2018 were 0.86 and 0.83, respectively. ③The model simulated multi-year runoff processes reasonably well with R2=0.76, and dry-season runoff with NSE=0.65, although it underestimated the peak flows in flood seasons, with the simulated peaks being approximately 75% of the observed peaks.【Conclusion】The SWAT model is effective for simulating runoff generation and routing under various hydrological conditions in the Shaying River Basin. The runoff is positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with temperature. High-quality input data, such as DEM, soil and land usage, along with appropriate parameter calibration and optimization, are critical for improving simulation accuracy. |
| Key words: Shaying River Basin; SWAT model; sensibility analysis; parameter optimization; runoff simulation |
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