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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2025343 |
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| Construction and prediction of spatiotemporal variation in precipitation in the main stem of the Yellow River |
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LI Lei, QI Shi, SHU Heping, WANG Xingkun, CUI Weidong, LI Kuijing
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1. College of water conservancy and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering, Northwest Institute of Eco-environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China; 3. Gansu Provincial Agricultural Smart Water-saving
Technology Innovation Center, Lanzhou 730070, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Understanding and predicting precipitation dynamics under climate change is important for water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions. Taking the Lanzhou-Baotou reach of the Yellow River as an example, we analyzed the temporal variation and probability distribution of precipitation and predicted the future changes in precipitation.【Method】Monthly precipitation data collected from 1956 to 2016 from eight stations (Lanzhou, Xijishui, Yinchuan, Dengkou, Linhe, Wuyuan, Wuchuanqi and Baotou) were used in the analysis. Spatiotemporal variations in precipitation in the reach were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The precipitation time series distribution was fitted with the Normal, Gamma, and Exponential functions. Future precipitation changes were predicted using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and the Random Forest (RF) model.【Result】①Abrupt changes in precipitation mainly occurred between 1956 and 1990 and around 2010, with an approximate 10-year cycle. At all stations, we identified interdecadal (10-20 years), interannual (5-9 years), and long-term (50-60 years) cycles. ②The Gamma distribution provided the best fit for more than 60% of the eight stations, indicating that the precipitation distribution is positively skewed. ③The results showed that the precipitation will exhibit a fluctuation but increasing trend from 2024 to 2036, with a single annual peak. Lanzhou and Wuyuan stations are expected to experience a slight decrease in precipitation, while other stations show modest increases, with the largest increase (+1.8%) expected at Baotou. Precipitation from April to June is projected to reach 140-210 mm at Lanzhou, Yinchuan, Wuchuanqi and Baotou. High precipitation variability (53-77 mm) is projected at Dengkou and Wuchuanqi, while lower variability (＜5 mm) is expected at Yinchuan and Wuyuan.【Conclusion】Historical precipitation exhibited frequent abrupt changes, multi-scale periodic oscillations, and skewed distribution. Prediction reveals that precipitation is expected to show a fluctuating increase. These results highlight the possibility of flood risks due to the changes in precipitation pattern. |
| Key words: precipitation; distribution function; SARIMA model; random forest; the Yellow River |
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