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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026083 |
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| Spatiotemporal variation in meteorological factors and drought dynamics in Bazhou |
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Lyu Liangdong, Qi Wenting, Wang Hang, Fan Jungang, Wang Jiandong
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1. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,
Beijing 100081, China; 2. Western Agricultural Research Center, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Changji 831100, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Climate change can alter water availability and drought risk in arid regions, where even small changes in temperature and precipitation can substantially influence regional water balance and ecological security. This study characterize the spatiotemporal variations in key climatic factors and drought risk in Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture (Bazhou), Inner Mongolia, to support regional ecological security and water- resource management. 【Method】Meteorological data measured from eight stations in the region from 1960 to 2020 were used to characterize climatic variability and drought trends. Linear trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall test were used to identify temporal trends and abrupt changes, while the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was used to assess drought dynamics.【Result】①From 1960 to 2020, the region exhibited a significant warming-wetting trend, with temperature and precipitation increasing at an average rate of 0.2 ℃/10 a and 5.4 mm/10 a, respectively (p＜0.05). In contrast, sunshine duration decreased at an average rate of 2.9 h/10 a, and the SPEI-12 index declined at an average rate of 0.13-0.36/10 a, indicating increasing drought severity despite increasing precipitation, likely due to enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand. ②Climatic factors showed strong spatial heterogeneity, with temperature increasing from north to south, whereas precipitation showed an opposite spatial pattern, resulting in substantial spatial variation in water availability. ③Significant abrupt changes in precipitation and atmospheric pressure were detected around 1981 and 1966, respectively, indicating important shifts in regional climate conditions. Together, these results reveal that the apparent warming-wetting trend from 1960 to 2020 masked an increasing drought risk associated with enhanced atmospheric evaporative demand.【Conclusion】Bazhou became warmer and wetter from 1960 to 2020, but drought risk increased because the increase in precipitation was insufficient to offset the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand. Drought severity was greater in the south than in the north, while abrupt changes in atmospheric pressure and precipitation marked important transitions in the regional climate. |
| Key words: Bazhou meteorological elements spatio-temporal evolution SPEI drought trend warming-wetting trend |
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