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| DOI：10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2026003 |
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| Spatiotemporal change in potential evapotranspiration and its response to climatic and anthropogenic variation in the Manas River Basin |
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Tilare·Aikelamu, Ren Huili, Liu Bing, Wang Ting, Li Xinwei
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1. College of Water Conservancy & Architectural Engineering, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, China; 2. Key Laboratory of
Cold and Arid Regions Eco-hydraulic Engineering of Xinjiang Production & Construction Corps, Shihezi 832000, China;
3. Water Conservancy Project Management & Service Center of Shihezi City, the 8th Division, Shihezi 832000, China
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| Abstract: |
| 【Objective】Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is an important indicator of atmospheric water demand, particularly in arid and water-limited regions. Understanding its spatiotemporal variability is essential for water resource management under, especially water conservation conditions. This study investigated the spatiotemporal patterns of PET in the Manas River Basin and identified the climatic and anthropogenic factors that drive its variation.【Method】Using meteorological and socioeconomic data measured from 1980 to 2023, the spatiotemporal variation of PET in the basin was analyzed using Theil-Sen median trend analysis and the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test. GeoDetector and Random Forest regression were combined to quantify the contributions of climatic and anthropogenic factors and identify the key drivers underlying PET variation.【Result】①Mean air temperature increased significantly, whereas mean wind speed and relative humidity decreased significantly across the basin from 1980 to 2023. ②PET showed a significant upward trend with pronounced spatial heterogeneity, with the highest rate of increase in desert areas, followed by oasis-plain areas, and the lowest rate of increase in mountainous areas. ③GeoDetector analysis indicated that temperature, precipitation, and wind speed had relatively high explanatory power (q-values) for PET variation, whereas Random Forest analysis identified temperature, sunshine duration, and relative humidity as the most important predictors. ④Population and GDP had relatively weak direct explanatory power but enhanced the effects of climatic factors, particularly temperature, through significant interactions.【Conclusion】PET in the Manas River Basin increased significantly from 1980 to 2023 and exhibited a spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south and in the west than in the east. Temperature was the dominant driver of PET variation. Anthropogenic factors had a relatively weak direct effect but could amplify PET variation through interactions with climatic factors. These findings provide a scientific basis for understanding changes in atmospheric water demand and supporting water resource management in the basin under water-conservation conditions. |
| Key words: potential evapotranspiration driving factors GeoDetector random forest human activities |
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